Identifying which septic patients have increased mortality risk using severity scores: a cohort study

BMC Anesthesiology

Table 4 Performance characteristics of each severity criteria

Severity criteria	Performance characteristics for 30 day mortality					AUROC (95% CI)
Severity criteria	Mortality below cut-off value	Sensitivity	Specificity	PPV	NPV	30 day mortality	90 day mortality
SIRS criteria	13%	76%	38%	23%	87%	0.61	0.57
SIRS criteria	(29/227)	(94/123)	(198/515)	(94/411)	(198/227)	(0.55–0.67)	(0.52–0.62)^b
SEWS score	15%	60%	56%	24%	85%	0.60	0.59
SEWS score	(50/337)	(74/124)	(287/516)	(74/303)	(287/337)	(0.54–0.66)	(0.54–0.65)
CURB65 score	8%	81%	52%	29%	92%	0.72	0.72
CURB65 score	(23/291)	(101/124)	(268/516)	(101/349)	(268/291)	(0.67–0.77)	(0.67–0.76)
IHI criteria	14%	50%	72%	29%	86%	0.61	0.59
IHI criteria	(62/431)	(61/123)	(369/515)	(61/207)	(369/431)	(0.55–0.66)	(0.54–0.64)
SSC criteria	14%	48%	78%	34%	86%	0.63	0.61
SSC criteria	(65/468)	(59/124)	(403/516)	(59/172)	(403/468)	(0.57–0.69)	(0.56–0.66)
Survive Sepsis criteria	15%	46%	75%	30%	85%	0.61	0.58
Survive Sepsis criteria	(66/450)	(57/123)	(384/515)	(77/188)	(384/450)	(0.55–0.66)	(0.53–0.63)

^aPositive predictive value equals the mortality rate above the cut-off value for each set of criteria.
^bp = 0.004, (p ≤ 0.001 for all other AUROC).
Area under receiver operating characteristics curves AUROC = (with 95% CI) for the ability of each set of severity criteria to predict 30 and 90 day mortality.

ISSN: 1471-2253